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Turdi Ghoja
01-02-11, 23:55
While it is still too early tell how the on-going protests in Egypt will end, it is hard to miss the similarities between this movement and the June 4 Chinese student movement. Even though things look favorable to the demonstrators now, it still could end the same way as the Beijing student movement. Do not underestimate a dictator who ruled a country for 30 years. Egypt is not Tunisia; Mubarak is not the president of Tunisia whose name I do not even know. He has friends not only in Arab world also in the West. To rule a country like Egypt for 39 years you must have a strong power base. He could unleash some of that on the demonstrators to turn it ugly and still could get away with it. But, he probably does not like to stain his legacy with it, therefore, is trying to find a way out without losing dignity. I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Egyptians might be better off accepting his offer today and settle for a gradual transition to democracy after him. A dictator does not deserve dignity. But, a little something is better than nothing. I was in the country last December. It is incredibly overcrowded and poor. It gives the impession that the government does not care about the country or people. But, I was told that it was one of the better moments of Egypt in the recent history. I am afraid no one has a magic bullet to solve that problem. When people’s high expectations are met with disappointment, a civil war could break out. When so many hungry and angry people are packed into a tight space, it is not easy to maintain order. If the movement continues, a more likely scenario is that he could install one of his generals into his position to buy the loyalty of the military to make an exit on his own terms and the dictatorship continues under a different dictator. If they have been loyal to him for 30 years, do not expect them to turn 180 degrees because of the demonstration.

I was student in Beijing during the June 4 Student Movement. The movement was allowed to go on peacefully for 50 days before it was brutally suppressed. It happened at time when the Chinese Government started to take small steps to introduce more political freedom and become more tolerant towards critics and dissidents because progressive leaders like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were in charge. Precisely for this reason, the student movement was allowed to start and grow. One of my close friends happened to be one of few people who witnessed and participated the beginning of that movement on April 16, 1989. He was passing by the Tianmen Square in the evening of that day when dozens of people gathered in front of Zhongnan Hai to protest against the mysterious death of Hu Yaobang. He joined in and stayed there the whole night. He said many people threw their shoes into Zhongnan Hai, the White House equivalent of China. If it were a different time the police simply could detain the students and turn them over to their respective schools with serious warnings and that would've been the end of story. But, there was a struggle going on between the reformists and the hard-core conservative communists. The reformists must been calling the shots in that matter. It was highly likely that they even covertly initiated and orchestrated the student movement to get an upper hand in the power struggle. The student movement could've been stopped in the bud, but it was not. It was allowed to grow without much interruption. I took part in the biggest protest demonstration of the movement on April 27. On that day hundreds of thousands of students from Beijing and other cities marched on main thoroughfares of Beijing all day. Surrounded by a sea of like-minded people cheered by equal number of spectators was an empowering feeling. All of sudden you feel like you were on top of the world. That kind of euphoria kept fueling the movement until it reached a critical mass. The movement seriously had a potential to change China forever. But, even though we lived in it, we understood very little of a dictatorship. We were fooled by the lack of intervention for more than one and half months. In the hindsight, the movement went a little too far. If it had stopped a week earlier before it was labeled as a counter-revolutionary movement with a promises that it would come back even bigger if the government would not start to address their grievances, the outcome could’ve been very different. The reformists could’ve used the looming threat of the student movement as powerful ammunition to advance their agenda. But, it is very hard to stop when you are flying so high up. Emboldened by seven weeks' uninterupted permissions by the authorities, students refused to compromise and kept pushing their luck. The rest is history. Despite geographic and cultural proximity, the Egyptian situation is more similar to the Chinese one than the Tunisian one. I hope the June 4 movement does not repeat itself in Egypt.

Turdi Ghoja
01-02-11, 23:58
Sorry for the numerous spelling errors. I should've run a spell check before I posted it. Mubarak ruled Egypt for 30 years, not 39 as I mistyped in the article above.

Unregistered
02-02-11, 10:17
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02-02-11 12:55 #1 Turdi Ghoja
Guest Misr Protests and June 4 China Student Movement
While it is still too early tell how the on-going protests in Egypt will end, it is hard to miss the similarities between this movement and the June 4 Chinese student movement. Even though things look favorable to the demonstrators now, it still could end the same way as the Beijing student movement. Do not underestimate a dictator who ruled a country for 30 years. Egypt is not Tunisia; Mubarak is not the president of Tunisia whose name I do not even know. He has friends not only in Arab world also in the West. To rule a country like Egypt for 39 years you must have a strong power base. He could unleash some of that on the demonstrators to turn it ugly and still could get away with it. But, he probably does not like to stain his legacy with it, therefore, is trying to find a way out without losing dignity. I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Egyptians might be better off accepting his offer today and settle for a gradual transition to democracy after him. A dictator does not deserve dignity. But, a little something is better than nothing. I was in the country last December. It is incredibly overcrowded and poor. It gives the impession that the government does not care about the country or people. But, I was told that it was one of the better moments of Egypt in the recent history. I am afraid no one has a magic bullet to solve that problem. When people’s high expectations are met with disappointment, a civil war could break out. When so many hungry and angry people are packed into a tight space, it is not easy to maintain order. If the movement continues, a more likely scenario is that he could install one of his generals into his position to buy the loyalty of the military to make an exit on his own terms and the dictatorship continues under a different dictator. If they have been loyal to him for 30 years, do not expect them to turn 180 degrees because of the demonstration.

I was student in Beijing during the June 4 Student Movement. The movement was allowed to go on peacefully for 50 days before it was brutally suppressed. It happened at time when the Chinese Government started to take small steps to introduce more political freedom and become more tolerant towards critics and dissidents because progressive leaders like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were in charge. Precisely for this reason, the student movement was allowed to start and grow. One of my close friends happened to be one of few people who witnessed and participated the beginning of that movement on April 16, 1989. He was passing by the Tianmen Square in the evening of that day when dozens of people gathered in front of Zhongnan Hai to protest against the mysterious death of Hu Yaobang. He joined in and stayed there the whole night. He said many people threw their shoes into Zhongnan Hai, the White House equivalent of China. If it were a different time the police simply could detain the students and turn them over to their respective schools with serious warnings and that would've been the end of story. But, there was a struggle going on between the reformists and the hard-core conservative communists. The reformists must been calling the shots in that matter. It was highly likely that they even covertly initiated and orchestrated the student movement to get an upper hand in the power struggle. The student movement could've been stopped in the bud, but it was not. It was allowed to grow without much interruption. I took part in the biggest protest demonstration of the movement on April 27. On that day hundreds of thousands of students from Beijing and other cities marched on main thoroughfares of Beijing all day. Surrounded by a sea of like-minded people cheered by equal number of spectators was an empowering feeling. All of sudden you feel like you were on top of the world. That kind of euphoria kept fueling the movement until it reached a critical mass. The movement seriously had a potential to change China forever. But, even though we lived in it, we understood very little of a dictatorship. We were fooled by the lack of intervention for more than one and half months. In the hindsight, the movement went a little too far. If it had stopped a week earlier before it was labeled as a counter-revolutionary movement with a promises that it would come back even bigger if the government would not start to address their grievances, the outcome could’ve been very different. The reformists could’ve used the looming threat of the student movement as powerful ammunition to advance their agenda. But, it is very hard to stop when you are flying so high up. Emboldened by seven weeks' uninterupted permissions by the authorities, students refused to compromise and kept pushing their luck. The rest is history. Despite geographic and cultural proximity, the Egyptian situation is more similar to the Chinese one than the Tunisian one. I hope the June 4 movement does not repeat itself in Egypt.

Unregistered
02-02-11, 10:19
Turdi Ghoja
Guest Misr Protests and June 4 China Student Movement
While it is still too early tell how the on-going protests in Egypt will end, it is hard to miss the similarities between this movement and the June 4 Chinese student movement. Even though things look favorable to the demonstrators now, it still could end the same way as the Beijing student movement. Do not underestimate a dictator who ruled a country for 30 years. Egypt is not Tunisia; Mubarak is not the president of Tunisia whose name I do not even know. He has friends not only in Arab world also in the West. To rule a country like Egypt for 39 years you must have a strong power base. He could unleash some of that on the demonstrators to turn it ugly and still could get away with it. But, he probably does not like to stain his legacy with it, therefore, is trying to find a way out without losing dignity. I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Egyptians might be better off accepting his offer today and settle for a gradual transition to democracy after him. A dictator does not deserve dignity. But, a little something is better than nothing. I was in the country last December. It is incredibly overcrowded and poor. It gives the impession that the government does not care about the country or people. But, I was told that it was one of the better moments of Egypt in the recent history. I am afraid no one has a magic bullet to solve that problem. When people’s high expectations are met with disappointment, a civil war could break out. When so many hungry and angry people are packed into a tight space, it is not easy to maintain order. If the movement continues, a more likely scenario is that he could install one of his generals into his position to buy the loyalty of the military to make an exit on his own terms and the dictatorship continues under a different dictator. If they have been loyal to him for 30 years, do not expect them to turn 180 degrees because of the demonstration.

I was student in Beijing during the June 4 Student Movement. The movement was allowed to go on peacefully for 50 days before it was brutally suppressed. It happened at time when the Chinese Government started to take small steps to introduce more political freedom and become more tolerant towards critics and dissidents because progressive leaders like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were in charge. Precisely for this reason, the student movement was allowed to start and grow. One of my close friends happened to be one of few people who witnessed and participated the beginning of that movement on April 16, 1989. He was passing by the Tianmen Square in the evening of that day when dozens of people gathered in front of Zhongnan Hai to protest against the mysterious death of Hu Yaobang. He joined in and stayed there the whole night. He said many people threw their shoes into Zhongnan Hai, the White House equivalent of China. If it were a different time the police simply could detain the students and turn them over to their respective schools with serious warnings and that would've been the end of story. But, there was a struggle going on between the reformists and the hard-core conservative communists. The reformists must been calling the shots in that matter. It was highly likely that they even covertly initiated and orchestrated the student movement to get an upper hand in the power struggle. The student movement could've been stopped in the bud, but it was not. It was allowed to grow without much interruption. I took part in the biggest protest demonstration of the movement on April 27. On that day hundreds of thousands of students from Beijing and other cities marched on main thoroughfares of Beijing all day. Surrounded by a sea of like-minded people cheered by equal number of spectators was an empowering feeling. All of sudden you feel like you were on top of the world. That kind of euphoria kept fueling the movement until it reached a critical mass. The movement seriously had a potential to change China forever. But, even though we lived in it, we understood very little of a dictatorship. We were fooled by the lack of intervention for more than one and half months. In the hindsight, the movement went a little too far. If it had stopped a week earlier before it was labeled as a counter-revolutionary movement with a promises that it would come back even bigger if the government would not start to address their grievances, the outcome could’ve been very different. The reformists could’ve used the looming threat of the student movement as powerful ammunition to advance their agenda. But, it is very hard to stop when you are flying so high up. Emboldened by seven weeks' uninterupted permissions by the authorities, students refused to compromise and kept pushing their luck. The rest is history. Despite geographic and cultural proximity, the Egyptian situation is more similar to the Chinese one than the Tunisian one. I hope the June 4 movement does not repeat itself in Egypt.

Unregistered
04-02-11, 08:11
It would be much easier to tackle the next guy takes Mubarak's place, because he would not have as much powerbase. If you ruled a country for 30 years, you are bound to offend some people as evidenced by the demonstrations. If these angry people take power, Mubarak knows what will happen to him. Therefore, he will use whatever means he has to make sure that he will have a peaceful retirement, enjoying billions of dollars he stole from the people. One thing for sure, these demonstrators could not get power without bloodshed, but it is possible for them to get a minority share of power to satisfy their anger.

I hope the fire will spread to Uzbekistan. Egyptions have much more freedom than the Uzbeks. Uzbekistan is like the Soviet Union or China without money. Kerimov is much worse than Mubarak. Nobody likes in the world except China. 20 years is long enough. Do Uzbeks have courage as the Egyptions or are they a bunch of wussies?

Unregistered
05-02-11, 09:55
It would be much easier to tackle the next guy takes Mubarak's place, because he would not have as much powerbase. If you ruled a country for 30 years, you are bound to offend some people as evidenced by the demonstrations. If these angry people take power, Mubarak knows what will happen to him. Therefore, he will use whatever means he has to make sure that he will have a peaceful retirement, enjoying billions of dollars he stole from the people. One thing for sure, these demonstrators could not get power without bloodshed, but it is possible for them to get a minority share of power to satisfy their anger.

I hope the fire will spread to Uzbekistan. Egyptions have much more freedom than the Uzbeks. Uzbekistan is like the Soviet Union or China without money. Kerimov is much worse than Mubarak. Nobody likes in the world except China. 20 years is long enough. Do Uzbeks have courage as the Egyptions or are they a bunch of wussies?uzbekistan is a litetle(as small) Soviet Union until to Today.